Gorgeous Day in Denver

I'm still in Denver, where the autumn weather is as nice as it could possibly be.  Today it is in the mid-80s, with clear blue skies and plenty of color in the leaves.  I took advantage by going on a bike ride along Cherry Creek.

The 10-day forecast says that highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s are on the way, so I figure I needed to get out and take advantage of the shorts and T-shirt weather while I can. 

In an update to my last post, I got some good news this week.  An MRI came back negative, which means it didn't detect any signs of cancer.  As you might imagine, it was a big relief!  Another biopsy will determine if there is indeed a relapse, but if so, it seems that it will be manageable.  We'll see.  In the meantime, I can breathe a little bit easier.

My writing has stalled out a bit, with everything else I've been dealing with lately, but with some luck, I'll get back on track with my latest novel this week.  One step at a time...

A Day in the Life...

I don't post on this blog very often, and I figure not many people actually read it, but I thought I'd give an update today.  I wish I could say it was going to be an uplifting message, but unfortunately it's one of those that is more about facing life's challenges and doing the best you can.

Right now I'm in Denver, staying with family.  If it wasn't for the pandemic, I'd be living back in Budapest now, but as it is I seem to be here in the US for the duration.  I suppose in some ways there is what could be considered an odd silver lining of sorts.  Last year I posted about being treated for prostate cancer.  Now tests are indicating that it seems to be back.  So, no, having a recurrence of cancer is not a silver lining, but being here in my home country for further testing and treatment is.

The challenges at the moment are multi-fold.  First I had to find a new doctor here in Denver, which I was able to do.  Then I had to switch my insurance coverage from California to Colorado, which slows things down and adds layer upon layer of anxiety.  It's led me to scheduling and showing up for an MRI, only to be refused service and turned away because the insurance hadn't kicked in here yet.  It's led me to show up at another hospital for a PET scan and pay up front for that one, only to be told this morning that I am not eligible to be reimbursed because I didn't wait an extra week for the benefits to kick in first.  It's had me on the phone to doctor's offices, and insurance representatives, and financial counselors, and hospital staff, trying to sort through the bureaucracy week after week, all while there is likely this recurrence of cancer growing inside me.

The good news, and I need to try to focus on that these days, is that the PET scan came back negative, which means there is no sign of metastasis.  That does take a fair amount of the pressure off, but this is still not something I want to delay.

In the meantime, I'm trying to keep plugging along with the rest of my life.  I'm working on a new thriller novel and making every effort to remain productive, despite the anxiety, and the phone calls, and the appointments, when I can get them.  I did manage to get up into the foothills this past weekend for a hike among the aspens with my sister.

Nature has a healing power all it's own, at least psychologically, and that's a big part of the battle.  I'll keep doing the best I can do, making those phone calls, scheduling appointments, and working my way through it all.  

This has been a rough year for a whole lot of people all around the world.  I know I'm not alone in that.  Days like I had today can be somewhat paralyzing, but I'm trying to maintain some optimism and look ahead to a time when this is all behind me.

There is the possibility that I won't need further treatment (though the doctor says that's slim).  There is the possibility that I'll have further treatment, and this time it will be successful, and by early next year I'll be able to move on without it hanging over me any longer.  I will focus on that outcome, and look forward to that day.

For those of you facing challenges of your own this year, either related to the pandemic, or the stressful political or economic situation, or something else entirely, I join you in hoping that better times lie ahead.  Until then, we'll keep plugging away, one foot in front of the other, doing what we can to appreciate the good things.

Today in Denver, it is warm and sunny, the skies are a deep clear blue, and the leaves are changing.  It's a good reminder of how nice it is just to be alive for another day on earth.

Off on a Beach Adventure

As most of the world waits out the coronavirus at home, I'm weathering the pandemic here in Laguna Beach, California.  I came home from Budapest to visit my family in March and have been trapped here ever since, but I am quite fortunate to be riding it out in this beautiful place.  That sort of goes without saying...  All of the beaches and parks are closed in town, but there is one very long beach north of here at Crystal Cove State Park that is open, but only for biking or walking in.  Normally you can park there, but for now there is no easy access.  I was finally able to borrow a bike to ride up there.  Care to come along on the adventure?

First, it's a few miles up the Pacific Coast Highway, and then off through the hills with a great view of the coast.  Onward into the canyon, the mustard is in full bloom.

Then at the bottom of the canyon, as you approach the beach, you come to a tunnel.  I actually grew up here in this spot.  This was a mobile home park for much of the 20th century, and my family was fortunate enough to have a place here.  It's where I spent my summers, running back and forth to the beach through this tunnel.  Normally, it's not full of water like this, but maintenance is at a standstill currently.

It was about 15 years ago that the state kicked out all of us residents and turned it into a state park.  To me, though, it still feels like home.  Heading through the tunnel, the beach is just in sight!

And here we are!  A socially distant beach.

With the view looking north...

And south, toward El Morro Point.

All you need is a towel.

With nobody around, even the flowers are getting a chance to bloom on the beach.

Last look back at the point from a walk up the beach...

There's certainly plenty of space to go around.  I hope you've enjoyed this trip to the beach.  With some luck, we'll all be out enjoying the world as we knew it, before too much longer.  In the meantime, hang in there and stay safe!

Life in the time of Social Distancing

To anyone who finds their way here to my blog, I hope you're surviving these dire times, and that you and your friends and family are staying healthy.  I was in New Caledonia when this whole thing really picked up steam in February.  I flew home to visit my family in California in the middle of the month and have been riding it out here since.  My plans to return to Budapest last month went out the window for now, but that's a small disruption compared to what a lot of others are going through.

Here in Laguna Beach, our parks and beaches are closed.  Masks are required in the grocery stores.  Most of the trailheads are also closed, but there are a few exceptions, known mostly to just a handful of locals.  I have managed to get up there for a few hikes with friends, keeping our distance.

So far, my own friends and family are healthy, but these are scary times.  I'm staying in a short-term rental but haven't dared visit my parents since early March.  Today my dad forwarded a message from an epidemiologist that I thought I'd share below.  Hang in there people, and hopefully we'll get through this together.

Open Letter from Jonathan Smith, Epidemiologist, Yale University

Hey everybody, as an infectious disease epidemiologist, at this point I feel morally obligated to provide some information on what we are seeing from a transmission dynamic perspective and how they apply to the social distancing measures.

Like any good scientist I have noticed two things that are either not articulated or not present in the "literature" of social media. Specifically, I want to make two aspects of these measures very clear and unambiguous. First, we are in the very infancy of this epidemic's trajectory. That means even with these measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks. Our hospitals will be overwhelmed, and people will die that didn't have to.

This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working.
They are. They may feel futile. They aren't.

You will feel discouraged. You should.
This is normal in chaos. But, this is also normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm.

This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse.

This is not my opinion; this is the unforgiving math of epidemics for which I and my colleagues have dedicated our lives to understanding with great nuance, and this disease is no exception.

We know what will happen; I want to help the community brace for this impact.

Stay strong and with solidarity knowing with absolute certainty that what you are doing is saving lives, even as people begin getting sick and dying.

You may feel like giving in. Don't.

Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well- received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics.

While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it of course increases your contacts with group (i.e. family) members.

This small and obvious fact has surprisingly profound implications on disease transmission dynamics.

Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners,
playdates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic trajectory isn't much different than if there was no measure in place.

The same underlying fundamentals of disease transmission apply, and the result is that the community is left with all of the social and economic disruption but very little public health benefit.

You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk.

Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming speed.
If your son visits his girlfriend, and you later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son's girlfriend's mother shook hands with.

This sounds silly, it's not.
This is not a joke or a hypothetical.

We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data time and time again and no one listens.
Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that chain. In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison.

These measures also take a long time to see the results.

It is hard (even for me) to conceptualize how 'one quick little get together' can undermine the entire framework of a public health intervention, but it does.

I promise you it does. I promise. I promise. I promise. You can't cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a "little"- a playdate, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc.
From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.

Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to unwise choices.

My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting 'sucker-punched' by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks.

It will be easy to be drawn to the idea that what we are doing isn't working and become paralyzed by fear, or to 'cheat' a little bit in the coming weeks.

By knowing what to expect, and knowing the importance of maintaining these measures, my hope is to encourage continued community spirit, strategizing, and action to persevere in this time of uncertainty.

Jonathan Smith Epidemiologist Yale U

Summer Down Under

Well, my winter hasn't been so bad, I'd say.  Or, my summer, actually.  I was in Budapest until January 2nd and then decamped for warmer climes.  First stop was Thailand, where I spent a week on Phuket.

I spent my mornings working in cafes, and then headed off on a rental scooter each afternoon to chill out at the beach.  Not bad.  Then it was off to visit friends in Australia, in Brisbane and the Gold Coast.

Some of my friends further south, in New South Wales, were surrounded by the fires, but where I was in Queensland, all was nice and lush.

So, after three weeks around there, it was off to visit some more friends, this time in New Caledonia.  I love this little piece of France in the South Pacific.  It's a tropical paradise, a little bit like Hawaii but without all of the tourists, and everybody speaks French.

And now, I'm back at home in Laguna Beach, California, visiting friends and family for a few weeks.

Next stop will be back to Budapest.  Currently, they're still in the last gasps of winter over there, though, so I'm not feeling like I'm in any hurry!  In the meantime, I'm finishing up the last revisions of my Spy Girl thriller novel and looking forward to the launch at the end of April.  For anyone who has found their way here to my blog, take care until my next update and happy reading!